Florida Keys Wedding Weather by Month: Real Numbers

Thirty year NOAA normals for every month, what they mean for an outdoor ceremony, and the honest trade between weather and price.

By Michael Willis · Last reviewed 2026-09-10.

The numbers

Thirty year climate normals for Key West, 1991 to 2020, from the National Weather Service.

Month	Average high	Average low	Rainfall
January	76	66	1.83 in
February	77	67	1.54 in
March	80	69	1.53 in
April	83	73	2.07 in
May	86	76	3.12 in
June	89	79	4.23 in
July	90	81	3.63 in
August	91	81	5.37 in
September	89	79	7.24 in
October	86	77	5.67 in
November	81	72	2.05 in
December	78	68	2.16 in

The Weather Service publishes normals for Marathon, Islamorada, Tavernier, Bahia Honda and Duck Key as well. The pattern holds across the chain.

What the table actually tells you

The dry season is December through April. Under two and a quarter inches of rain a month, highs in the high seventies to low eighties, lows comfortable enough for an evening outdoors without anyone reaching for a wrap. This is why it is peak season, and why hotel rates roughly double.

September is the wettest month of the year by a wide margin. 7.24 inches, nearly five times January. It is also the cheapest month in the Keys and the clear trough of the year for occupancy. Those two facts are the same fact.

The heat is not really about the high. July and August average 90 and 91, which reads mild. What the table does not show is humidity. An 89 degree afternoon in September feels considerably heavier than an 89 degree afternoon in May, and guests in formal wear notice.

Rain in the Keys is not rain in most places

The rainfall figures look alarming next to a temperate climate. They behave differently.

Summer and early autumn rain in the Keys is typically convective: it builds through the afternoon, falls hard for twenty to forty minutes, and clears. A four o'clock ceremony in August is a genuine risk. A six thirty ceremony in August often is not.

This is why the shape of your day matters more than the month. Moving a ceremony ninety minutes later does more for your odds than moving it two months earlier, and costs nothing.

Hurricane season, honestly

The Atlantic hurricane season runs 1 June to 30 November, with activity concentrated in August, September and October.

Most Keys weddings in those months happen without incident. But the Keys are a chain of low lying islands connected by one road, and the relevant risk is not only a storm on your date. It is a storm anywhere in the region during the week, disrupting flights, closing US 1, or triggering a precautionary evacuation.

Two practical points. Travel insurance for a named storm must generally be purchased before that storm is named, so buying it after a forecast appears is too late. And ask your venue directly what their policy is on postponement for weather, in writing, before you sign. The answers vary far more than you would expect.

The honest trade

	Weather	Cost
Dec to Apr	Best	Highest, roughly double
May, Jun, Jul, Nov	Good	Moderate
Aug, Sep, Oct	Hot and wet	Lowest

November is the quiet answer. Two inches of rain, highs in the low eighties, and shoulder season pricing. It sits just past hurricane season's peak and just before the rates climb. For couples flexible on date, it is usually the best value month in the chain.

Climate data: NOAA National Weather Service Key West, Florida Keys Monthly Normals 1991 to 2020. Seasonal rate context: Modern Era Weddings Florida Keys Pricing and Services Guide 2026.